9. Andrew
8. Aaron
7. Katie
6. Tim
5. Mike
4. Siobhan
3. Casey
2. Lee
1. Crystal

I think Andrew and Aaron will definitely be out this week. Although Katie has been surviving, I think most of the teen girl votes go to Tim, so he should survive longer than her. Tim, like so many before him (Pickler, Constantine, etc.), will be a random contestant who, to everyone’s dismay, lasts until the six spot.

Mike’s save should help him last a few more weeks. After that, Siobhan, who may have peaked too early, will be out in the four spot. That will leave Casey, Lee, and Crystal to visit their hometowns. I expect to see Crystal and Lee in the finale, and Crystal to be crowned champ–the first female since Jordin.

So, what do you think? Agree? Disagree? Feel free to argue with me.

I was told to be back at 5am but I know from experience that nothing will start until 7, and your place in line is irrelevant because you sit in assigned seats based on the printed ticket. But I will be there, and hopefully get some pictures of idol hopefuls in ridiculous costumes, and grab a glimpse of Seacrest. Also, the group song is Pat Benatar’s Heartbreaker, which I’m sure we will sing over and over.

The instructions given to me today say that they are not allowing video cameras or “professional” cameras. I don’t know what constitutes a “professional” camera, but I only have a DSLR, so I’m bringing it, and my little flip video. I guess I will have to be discreet.

I will be live blogging and twittering, hopefully giving you lots of pictures and video if I can sneak some. And if I’m feeling lucky, I might actually audition (it is the last year I am eligible, after all.)

Danny and Adam are going to be safe. Danny is the only one that dialidol predicts is statistically out of harm’s way. And Adam is a given. This leaves five contestants that could be eliminated.

Many are predicting Lil to go tonight, and although she deserves it, she has a solid core of voters. Additionally, her backing by VFTW, for what it is worth, will give her a little boost. Being the only diva contestant coupled with singing in the Pimp Spot last night, I think she will hold out a bit longer.

Allison had her worst performance last night, and also sang in the Dead Man’s spot. However, she was pimped by Simon in her critique, and from what I hear, she is gaining momentum. I could see her going bottom 3, but probably won’t be eliminated.

This leaves these boys: Matt, Kris, and Anoop. I think they all have an equal shot of getting the boot. All of these guys plus Danny are kind of the same singer and somewhat interchangeable. Kris and Matt are especially interchangeable and have been grouped since their “White Chocolate” days in Hollywood week. One of them will eventually have to be purged a la Jennifer Hudson during “season of the divas.”

Anoop has the fact that he has been doing better the last few weeks on his side. However, he has not had any sort of breakout performance. Solid, yes. But not breakout. He has been in the bottom 3 recently and might be heading out .

I thought Kris’s performance was simply above average yesterday, though after trolling the Idol blogosphere, most people think he was the best of the night. He also got mixed reviews from the abbreviated judges comments. Additionally, Kris is at the bottom of the dialidol rankings, for what it’s worth.

Matt, who has previously made an appearance in the bottom 3, had a weird night, too. His performance was great through the first half, and horrible through the second. I mean it went from me getting chills, to me wanting to mute the tv, and all in 90 seconds! Matt came in at a close second-to-last in the dialidol rankings, as well.

The next question is, of course, who is worthy of the judges’ save?  Time is beginning to tick on its expiration (Can they use it up to the top 5, or through the top 5?  Not sure if Ryan was clear about this).  Knowing that Adam and Danny appear to be safe without the aid of the judges, and Allison is gaining momentum, I could see them using it on either Matt or Kris.  I wouldn’t think they would use it on Anoop or Lil.  They might, however, want to save this to ensure Allison gets as far as she can.

And finally, who is getting Georged tonight?  If you don’t know what this means, this horrid Top 7 tradition was pioneered by George Huff in season 3. Six of the Idols are divided into two groups of three. The last, (the George-ee?) is told they are safe, and asked by Ryan (the George-er?) to choose which group of three is also safe, therefore leaving the other group as the bottom 3. Awkward, and completely unnecessary, if you ask me.  But I think Ryan secretly likes this.  Jennifer thinks it will be Adam, and I agree, though I sort of hope it is Allison, just to see what her reaction would be.

So, Anoop, Matt, or Kris, who is heading home?  And will the save be used on any of them? And who is getting Georged?

That is the best I could come up with off the top of my head.  What other 80s-hair being is Scott channeling?

PS – It should be known that Dave Coulier is wearing a Popeye applique sweatshirt in that photo.  It unfortunately had to be cropped so as not to scare any new readers away from the site.

13. Michael Sarver
12. Megan Corkrey
11. Kris Allen
10. Jasmine Murray
09. Jorge Nunez
08. Scott Macintyre
07. Anoop Desai
06. Adam Lambert
05. Allison Iraheta
04. Lil Rounds
03. Danny Gokey
02. Alexis Grace
01. Matt Giraud

While picking a front-runner is much tougher than the last four seasons, picking out the weak links isn’t quite as difficult, so let’s start at the end.

Michael Sarver and Megan Corkrey are going to get eaten alive by the big stage. Their voices aren’t that strong, and I have a feeling that Megan especially will struggle with Michael Jackson songs.

Kris Allen and Jasmine Murray will also struggle early on, because their voices are not as strong as some of the others. Kris may be able to redeem himself with a guitar, but I thing he will be an early goner.

Then things become a bit more difficult. I can’t see Jorge singing country, so he might struggle with Opry night. And I’m not sure that he has the fan base that the others have established.

Scott will be next, and while his charm with the piano will last several weeks, his weaker voice will start to become a liability. About this time, I think Anoop’s voice will catch up with him, too. I have a feeling that several weeks worth of negative judges feedback coupled with apparent bad vocals will give him the boot around #7.

I put Adam in the #6 spot, only because sixth place always seems to annoy me (Constantine, Pickler, and although she sort of grew on me, Carly Smithson). While Adam doesn’t completely annoy me yet, the warning signs are there.  Everything about him is over the top, and he will begin to grate on the nerves really fast. So call it a hunch, but he won’t last as long as some are predicting.

I put Allison in the #5 spot because I think she will stay because of her amazing voice, but I see her making a few song choice flubs, if only because of inexperience and difficult theme weeks.

Lil Rounds will go 4th, and again, call it a hunch, but like her predecessors of Latoya London and Lakisha Jones, this “L” diva will also go home in the #4 spot.

The remaining three are risky to have in the front, I know. I put Gokey in the #3 spot. While he was an early front-runner, all the backstory-backlash has gotten a bit out of hand, making him quite the polarizing contestant. While I don’t know that his voice is necessarily more stellar than Allison’s or Lil’s, I think he will make smart song choices and creative arrangements (he is a music teacher, after all) that will pull him through.

Alexis and Matt will battle out the finale, but in a season full of strong male voices, I feel like the guys have to prevail, and Matt will take the crown. I think they will both hang around until the end because they will fly under the radar for a few weeks, and hit their groove about top 9.

My strategy for picking the early front-runner as the eventual winner has failed the last three seasons, so I figure, why not go with an unexpected choice?

OK…leave your lashings in the comments.  But before you lash, recall that against everyone else’s opinions I correctly predicted Syesha to be #3 last season, so don’t be too hard on me!

I was watching the real-time results last night and a bunch of people held the #3 spot for varying amounts of time: Jesse, Kris, Megan, and Matt.  It is going to be a tough call.

One person who I didn’t ever notice in that coveted #3 spot?  Nick/Normund.  Thank you, America, for not making a mockery of my beloved show.

Obviously this whole post should be prefaced with the fact that this is dialidol, and they don’t always get it right, but they tend to be more accurate than not.  So believe at your own risk.